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Sparta Rotterdam vs Jong PSV U21 — Eerste Divisie 2018

Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
11/23/2018Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 15Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel (Rotterdam)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam60%
×Draw20%
Jong PSV U2121%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Rotterdam
2.32
Jong PSV U21
1.31

Sparta Rotterdam creates 77% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 149 away

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam
2.58
Jong PSV U21
1.52

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.11
Jong PSV U21
2.06

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam+0.00on par
Jong PSV U21+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam ↓

Jong PSV U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam or draw
79%
Sparta Rotterdam or Jong PSV U21
80%
Draw or Jong PSV U21
40%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
38%
Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
90%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
67%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
40%
Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
73%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
38%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
74%
Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Jong PSV U21 away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.06 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam attack 2.58 + Jong PSV U21 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.32

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.52 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sparta Rotterdam scores more
60%
level
20%
Jong PSV U21 scores more
21%

Sparta Rotterdam at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Rotterdam vs Jong PSV U21

Sparta Rotterdam and Jong PSV U21 drew 0-0 in Eerste Divisie on November 23, 2018.

The match was played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel (Rotterdam).