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Jong PSV U21 vs Sparta Rotterdam — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong PSV U21
Jong PSV U21
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
4/22/2019Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 36Sportcomplex De Herdgang (Eindhoven)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jong PSV U2137%
×Draw24%
Sparta Rotterdam39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong PSV U21
1.52
Sparta Rotterdam
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 19 away

creates per match

Jong PSV U21
1.67
Sparta Rotterdam
1.53

allows per match

Jong PSV U21
1.59
Sparta Rotterdam
1.37

finishing

Jong PSV U21+0.00on par
Sparta Rotterdam+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong PSV U21 ↓

Sparta Rotterdam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jong PSV U21 or draw
61%
Jong PSV U21 or Sparta Rotterdam
76%
Draw or Sparta Rotterdam
63%

Winning margin

Jong PSV U21 wins by 2+
18%
Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Jong PSV U21 1+ goals
78%
Jong PSV U21 2+ goals
45%
Jong PSV U21 3+ goals
20%
Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
79%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
46%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Jong PSV U21 (draw refunded)
49%
Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong PSV U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.59 · 147 matches

Sparta Rotterdam away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong PSV U21 attack 1.67 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.53 + Jong PSV U21 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jong PSV U21 scores more
37%
level
24%
Sparta Rotterdam scores more
39%

Sparta Rotterdam at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jong PSV U21 vs Sparta Rotterdam

Jong PSV U21 beat Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 22, 2019.

The match was played at Sportcomplex De Herdgang (Eindhoven).