Sparta Rotterdam 0–0 Heracles: Result & Stats

Sparta Rotterdam

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Heracles

8/11/2024

Eredivisie · Round 1Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam54%

×Draw23%

Heracles23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta RotterdamExpected goals in this matchHeracles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.08

Sparta Rotterdam

1.81

Heracles

1.08

Sparta Rotterdam creates 68% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 117 away

1.51

creates per match

0.79

1.37

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam

1.51

Heracles

0.79

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam

1.37

Heracles

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam+0.00on par

Heracles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam ↓

Heracles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam or draw

77%

Sparta Rotterdam or Heracles

77%

Draw or Heracles

46%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+

31%

Heracles wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals

84%

Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals

54%

Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals

27%

Heracles 1+ goals

66%

Heracles 2+ goals

29%

Heracles 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)

71%

Heracles (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.37 · 116 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.12 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.51 + Heracles defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.81

Heracles attack 0.79 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sparta Rotterdam scores more

54%

level

23%

Heracles scores more

23%

Sparta Rotterdam at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff