Heracles 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam: Result & Stats

Heracles

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sparta Rotterdam

1/11/2025

Eredivisie · Round 18Asito Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Heracles43%

×Draw24%

Sparta Rotterdam33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeraclesExpected goals in this matchSparta Rotterdam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.40

Heracles

1.62

Sparta Rotterdam

1.40

Heracles creates 16% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 119 away

1.73

creates per match

1.17

1.62

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Heracles

1.73

Sparta Rotterdam

1.17

allows per match

Heracles

1.62

Sparta Rotterdam

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heracles+0.00on par

Sparta Rotterdam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

Sparta Rotterdam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Heracles or draw

67%

Heracles or Sparta Rotterdam

76%

Draw or Sparta Rotterdam

57%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+

22%

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals

80%

Heracles 2+ goals

48%

Heracles 3+ goals

22%

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals

75%

Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals

41%

Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)

56%

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

Sparta Rotterdam away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.51 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 1.73 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.62

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.17 + Heracles defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Heracles scores more

43%

level

24%

Sparta Rotterdam scores more

33%

Heracles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Heracles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff