Sparta Rotterdam 4–2 Excelsior: Result & Stats

Sparta Rotterdam

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Excelsior

C. Brym 90+6'

T. Lauritsen 75', 31'

A. Verschueren 24'

L. Duijvestijn 16'

K. Pierie 11'

2/17/2024

Eredivisie · Round 22Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam49%

×Draw24%

Excelsior28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta RotterdamExpected goals in this matchExcelsior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.27

Sparta Rotterdam

1.75

Excelsior

1.27

Sparta Rotterdam creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.43

creates per match

1.09

1.46

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam

1.43

Excelsior

1.09

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam

1.46

Excelsior

2.06

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam-0.08on par

Excelsior+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam ↓

Excelsior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam or draw

72%

Sparta Rotterdam or Excelsior

76%

Draw or Excelsior

51%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+

26%

Excelsior wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals

83%

Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals

52%

Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals

25%

Excelsior 1+ goals

72%

Excelsior 2+ goals

36%

Excelsior 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)

64%

Excelsior (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.46 · 17 matches

Excelsior away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.43 + Excelsior defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.75

Excelsior attack 1.09 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sparta Rotterdam scores more

49%

level

24%

Excelsior scores more

28%

Sparta Rotterdam at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. Lauritsen

Sparta Rotterdam · F

9.2

Match Events

11'

K. Pierie↳ J. Baas

16'

L. Duijvestijn↳ C. Driouech

24'

A. Verschueren↳ T. Lauritsen

25'

S. Bakari← D. Warmerdam

31'

51'

56'

63'

66'

Djevencio van der Kust

66'

R. Meissen← B. Vriends

66'

S. Mito← P. Clement

67'

Metinho← J. de Guzmán

72'

L. Lamprou← C. Driouech

72'

O. Uddenäs← L. Duijvestijn

75'

T. Lauritsen↳ K. Saito

79'

C. Brym← T. Lauritsen

81'

R. Omorowa← A. Zagré

81'

N. Naujoks← C. Sandra

87'

M. Benita← K. Pierie

90+3'

Siebe Horemans

90+1'

Richie Omorowa

90+6'

C. Brym↳ Metinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartaExcelsior

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots11

2.44Expected Goals (xG)1.36

4Corners4

12Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots11

9On Target4

2Off Target2

1Blocked5

9Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

49%Possession51%

440Total Passes449

359Accurate Passes360

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls9

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1