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Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam — Eredivisie 2018

Excelsior
Excelsior
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
3/5/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 24Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Excelsior47%
×Draw24%
Sparta Rotterdam29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excelsior
1.73
Sparta Rotterdam
1.31

Excelsior creates 32% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

creates per match

Excelsior
1.43
Sparta Rotterdam
0.96

allows per match

Excelsior
1.66
Sparta Rotterdam
2.02

finishing

Excelsior-0.22scores less
Sparta Rotterdam+0.16scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior ↓

Sparta Rotterdam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Excelsior or draw
71%
Excelsior or Sparta Rotterdam
76%
Draw or Sparta Rotterdam
53%

Winning margin

Excelsior wins by 2+
25%
Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Excelsior 1+ goals
82%
Excelsior 2+ goals
52%
Excelsior 3+ goals
25%
Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
73%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
38%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Excelsior (draw refunded)
62%
Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.66 · 24 matches

Sparta Rotterdam away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.02 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior attack 1.43 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.96 + Excelsior defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Excelsior scores more
47%
level
24%
Sparta Rotterdam scores more
29%

Excelsior at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Excelsior 1–4 Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam beat Excelsior 4-1 in Eredivisie on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Rotterdam.