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Sparta Rotterdam vs Almere City FC — Eredivisie 2018

Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Almere City FC
Almere City FC
11/5/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 11Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam49%
×Draw25%
Almere City FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Rotterdam
1.56
Almere City FC
1.06

Sparta Rotterdam creates 47% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.51
Almere City FC
0.76

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.37
Almere City FC
1.62

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam+0.00on par
Almere City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam ↓

Almere City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam or draw
74%
Sparta Rotterdam or Almere City FC
75%
Draw or Almere City FC
51%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
25%
Almere City FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
79%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
46%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
21%
Almere City FC 1+ goals
65%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
29%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
65%
Almere City FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.37 · 116 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.51 + Almere City FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Almere City FC attack 0.76 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sparta Rotterdam scores more
49%
level
25%
Almere City FC scores more
26%

Sparta Rotterdam at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Sparta Rotterdam 1–2 Almere City FC

Almere City FC beat Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 in Eredivisie on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Rotterdam.