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Almere City FC vs Sparta Rotterdam — Eerste Divisie 2018

Almere City FC
Almere City FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
3/15/2019Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 29Yanmar Stadion (Almere)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Almere City FC43%
×Draw25%
Sparta Rotterdam33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City FC
1.56
Sparta Rotterdam
1.33

Almere City FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

creates per match

Almere City FC
1.75
Sparta Rotterdam
1.53

allows per match

Almere City FC
1.12
Sparta Rotterdam
1.37

finishing

Almere City FC+0.00on par
Sparta Rotterdam+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Sparta Rotterdam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw
67%
Almere City FC or Sparta Rotterdam
75%
Draw or Sparta Rotterdam
57%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+
21%
Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals
79%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
46%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
21%
Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
74%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
38%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)
57%
Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.12 · 112 matches

Sparta Rotterdam away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 1.75 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.53 + Almere City FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Almere City FC scores more
43%
level
25%
Sparta Rotterdam scores more
33%

Almere City FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Almere City FC 1–3 Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam beat Almere City FC 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on March 15, 2019.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion (Almere).