Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sparta Rotterdam vs ADO Den Haag — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
7/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportpark Spartacus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam8%
×Draw13%
ADO Den Haag79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Rotterdam
0.86
ADO Den Haag
2.95

ADO Den Haag creates 243% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.40
ADO Den Haag
4.50

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.40
ADO Den Haag
0.33

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam ↓

ADO Den Haag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–210%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam or draw
21%
Sparta Rotterdam or ADO Den Haag
87%
Draw or ADO Den Haag
92%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
2%
ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
58%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
21%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
6%
ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
95%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
79%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
9%
ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 4.50, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.40 + ADO Den Haag defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.86

ADO Den Haag attack 4.50 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Sparta Rotterdam scores more
8%
level
13%
ADO Den Haag scores more
79%

ADO Den Haag at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Rotterdam vs ADO Den Haag

Sparta Rotterdam and ADO Den Haag drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Spartacus in Middelharnis.