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ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam — Friendlies Clubs 2026

ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
8/1/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportpark Prinses Irene

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

ADO Den Haag16%
×Draw20%
Sparta Rotterdam64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag
0.96
Sparta Rotterdam
2.13

Sparta Rotterdam creates 122% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag
0.83
Sparta Rotterdam
2.25

allows per match

ADO Den Haag
2.00
Sparta Rotterdam
1.08

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par
Sparta Rotterdam+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

Sparta Rotterdam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw
36%
ADO Den Haag or Sparta Rotterdam
80%
Draw or Sparta Rotterdam
84%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
5%
Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
62%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
25%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
7%
Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
88%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
63%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
20%
Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Sparta Rotterdam away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 0.83 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Sparta Rotterdam attack 2.25 + ADO Den Haag defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more
16%
level
20%
Sparta Rotterdam scores more
64%

Sparta Rotterdam at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam beat ADO Den Haag 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Prinses Irene in Rijswijk.