Sparta Rotterdam II 2–4 Rijnsburgse Boys

Sparta Rotterdam II

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Rijnsburgse Boys

11/29/2025

Tweede Divisie · Round 15Sportpark Nieuw Terbregge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam II37%

×Draw22%

Rijnsburgse Boys41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Rotterdam IIExpected goals in this matchRijnsburgse Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.84

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.74

Rijnsburgse Boys

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 99 away

1.84

creates per match

1.95

1.73

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.84

Rijnsburgse Boys

1.95

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.73

Rijnsburgse Boys

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam II ↓

Rijnsburgse Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam II or draw

59%

Sparta Rotterdam II or Rijnsburgse Boys

78%

Draw or Rijnsburgse Boys

63%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+

19%

Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals

82%

Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals

52%

Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals

25%

Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals

84%

Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals

55%

Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)

47%

Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

Rijnsburgse Boys away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.64 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.84 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.74

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 1.95 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sparta Rotterdam II scores more

37%

level

22%

Rijnsburgse Boys scores more

41%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff