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Rijnsburgse Boys vs Sparta Rotterdam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

Rijnsburgse Boys
Rijnsburgse Boys
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Sparta Rotterdam II
Sparta Rotterdam II
3/16/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 25Sportpark Middelmors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Rijnsburgse Boys50%
×Draw22%
Sparta Rotterdam II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rijnsburgse Boys
2.01
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.48

Rijnsburgse Boys creates 36% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 102 away

creates per match

Rijnsburgse Boys
2.13
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.75

allows per match

Rijnsburgse Boys
1.21
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.89

finishing

Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par
Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnsburgse Boys ↓

Sparta Rotterdam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rijnsburgse Boys or draw
71%
Rijnsburgse Boys or Sparta Rotterdam II
78%
Draw or Sparta Rotterdam II
50%

Winning margin

Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+
29%
Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals
87%
Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals
59%
Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals
32%
Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals
77%
Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals
43%
Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)
64%
Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnsburgse Boys at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

Sparta Rotterdam II away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 2.13 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.01

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.75 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rijnsburgse Boys scores more
50%
level
22%
Sparta Rotterdam II scores more
29%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Rijnsburgse Boys 1–4 Sparta Rotterdam II

Sparta Rotterdam II beat Rijnsburgse Boys 4-1 in Tweede Divisie on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Middelmors in Rijnsburg.