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Sparta Rotterdam II vs Noordwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

Sparta Rotterdam II
Sparta Rotterdam II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Noordwijk
Noordwijk
12/7/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 16Sportpark Nieuw Terbregge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam II42%
×Draw23%
Noordwijk35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Rotterdam II
1.75
Noordwijk
1.59

Sparta Rotterdam II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 85 away

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam II
1.84
Noordwijk
1.46

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam II
1.73
Noordwijk
1.65

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par
Noordwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam II ↓

Noordwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam II or draw
65%
Sparta Rotterdam II or Noordwijk
77%
Draw or Noordwijk
58%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+
22%
Noordwijk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals
83%
Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals
52%
Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals
25%
Noordwijk 1+ goals
80%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
47%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)
54%
Noordwijk (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

Noordwijk away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.84 + Noordwijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.75

Noordwijk attack 1.46 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sparta Rotterdam II scores more
42%
level
23%
Noordwijk scores more
35%

Sparta Rotterdam II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Rotterdam II vs Noordwijk

Sparta Rotterdam II beat Noordwijk 4-2 in Tweede Divisie on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Nieuw Terbregge in Rotterdam.