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Noordwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

Noordwijk
Noordwijk
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Sparta Rotterdam II
Sparta Rotterdam II
5/17/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 33Sportpark Duinwetering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Noordwijk41%
×Draw22%
Sparta Rotterdam II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noordwijk
1.78
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 101 away

creates per match

Noordwijk
1.70
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.77

allows per match

Noordwijk
1.58
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.86

finishing

Noordwijk+0.00on par
Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noordwijk ↓

Sparta Rotterdam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Noordwijk or draw
63%
Noordwijk or Sparta Rotterdam II
78%
Draw or Sparta Rotterdam II
59%

Winning margin

Noordwijk wins by 2+
21%
Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Noordwijk 1+ goals
83%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
53%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
26%
Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals
81%
Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals
50%
Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Noordwijk (draw refunded)
53%
Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noordwijk at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

Sparta Rotterdam II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.86 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noordwijk attack 1.70 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.77 + Noordwijk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Noordwijk scores more
41%
level
22%
Sparta Rotterdam II scores more
37%

Noordwijk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Noordwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Noordwijk vs Sparta Rotterdam II

Noordwijk beat Sparta Rotterdam II 4-2 in Tweede Divisie on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Duinwetering in Noordwijk.