Sparta Rotterdam II 3–1 FC Lisse: Result & Stats

Sparta Rotterdam II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

FC Lisse

2/17/2024

Tweede Divisie · Round 22Sportpark Dijkpolder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam II51%

×Draw22%

FC Lisse27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Rotterdam IIExpected goals in this matchFC Lisse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.40

Sparta Rotterdam II

2.00

FC Lisse

1.40

Sparta Rotterdam II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 35 away

1.84

creates per match

1.06

1.73

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.84

FC Lisse

1.06

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.73

FC Lisse

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

FC Lisse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam II ↓

FC Lisse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam II or draw

73%

Sparta Rotterdam II or FC Lisse

78%

Draw or FC Lisse

49%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+

30%

FC Lisse wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals

86%

Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals

59%

Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals

32%

FC Lisse 1+ goals

75%

FC Lisse 2+ goals

41%

FC Lisse 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)

66%

FC Lisse (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

FC Lisse away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.17 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.84 + FC Lisse defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.00

FC Lisse attack 1.06 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sparta Rotterdam II scores more

51%

level

22%

FC Lisse scores more

27%

Sparta Rotterdam II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Sparta Rotterdam II 3–1 FC Lisse

Sparta Rotterdam II beat FC Lisse 3-1 in Tweede Divisie on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Dijkpolder in Maassluis.

Sparta Rotterdam II vs FC Lisse — Tweede Divisie 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tweede Divisie: Sparta Rotterdam II 3–1 FC Lisse