FC Lisse 2–0 Sparta Rotterdam II: Result & Stats

FC Lisse

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sparta Rotterdam II

12/10/2022

Tweede Divisie · Round 18Sportpark Ter Specke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

FC Lisse34%

×Draw23%

Sparta Rotterdam II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LisseExpected goals in this matchSparta Rotterdam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.77

FC Lisse

1.54

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.77

Sparta Rotterdam II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 101 away

1.23

creates per match

1.77

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

FC Lisse

1.23

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.77

allows per match

FC Lisse

1.77

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Lisse+0.00on par

Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lisse ↓

Sparta Rotterdam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

FC Lisse or draw

57%

FC Lisse or Sparta Rotterdam II

77%

Draw or Sparta Rotterdam II

66%

Winning margin

FC Lisse wins by 2+

16%

Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

FC Lisse 1+ goals

79%

FC Lisse 2+ goals

45%

FC Lisse 3+ goals

20%

Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals

83%

Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals

53%

Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

FC Lisse (draw refunded)

44%

Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lisse at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

Sparta Rotterdam II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.86 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lisse attack 1.23 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.77 + FC Lisse defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Lisse scores more

34%

level

23%

Sparta Rotterdam II scores more

43%

Sparta Rotterdam II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: FC Lisse 2–0 Sparta Rotterdam II

FC Lisse beat Sparta Rotterdam II 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on December 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Ter Specke in Lisse.

FC Lisse vs Sparta Rotterdam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tweede Divisie: FC Lisse 2–0 Sparta Rotterdam II