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Sparta Rotterdam II vs AFC Amsterdam — Tweede Divisie 2019

Sparta Rotterdam II
Sparta Rotterdam II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
AFC Amsterdam
AFC Amsterdam
3/8/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 25Sportpark Nieuw Terbregge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam II36%
×Draw23%
AFC Amsterdam41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Rotterdam II
1.59
AFC Amsterdam
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 100 away

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam II
1.84
AFC Amsterdam
1.68

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam II
1.73
AFC Amsterdam
1.34

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par
AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam II ↓

AFC Amsterdam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam II or draw
59%
Sparta Rotterdam II or AFC Amsterdam
77%
Draw or AFC Amsterdam
64%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+
18%
AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals
80%
Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals
47%
Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals
21%
AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals
82%
AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals
51%
AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)
47%
AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam II at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

AFC Amsterdam away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.34 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.84 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.59

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.68 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sparta Rotterdam II scores more
36%
level
23%
AFC Amsterdam scores more
41%

AFC Amsterdam at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Rotterdam II vs AFC Amsterdam

Sparta Rotterdam II beat AFC Amsterdam 4-2 in Tweede Divisie on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Nieuw Terbregge in Rotterdam.