AFC Amsterdam 1–4 Sparta Rotterdam II

AFC Amsterdam

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Sparta Rotterdam II

11/8/2025

Tweede Divisie · Round 12Sportpark Goed Genoeg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

AFC Amsterdam47%

×Draw22%

Sparta Rotterdam II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC AmsterdamExpected goals in this matchSparta Rotterdam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.52

AFC Amsterdam

1.92

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.52

AFC Amsterdam creates 26% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 101 away

1.97

creates per match

1.77

1.26

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

AFC Amsterdam

1.97

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.77

allows per match

AFC Amsterdam

1.26

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Amsterdam+0.00on par

Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Amsterdam ↓

Sparta Rotterdam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

AFC Amsterdam or draw

69%

AFC Amsterdam or Sparta Rotterdam II

78%

Draw or Sparta Rotterdam II

53%

Winning margin

AFC Amsterdam wins by 2+

26%

Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

AFC Amsterdam 1+ goals

85%

AFC Amsterdam 2+ goals

57%

AFC Amsterdam 3+ goals

30%

Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals

78%

Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals

45%

Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

AFC Amsterdam (draw refunded)

60%

Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Amsterdam at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

Sparta Rotterdam II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.86 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Amsterdam attack 1.97 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.77 + AFC Amsterdam defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AFC Amsterdam scores more

47%

level

22%

Sparta Rotterdam II scores more

31%

AFC Amsterdam at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AFC Amsterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff