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Sparta Praha W vs Glasgow City W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Sparta Praha W
Sparta Praha W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Glasgow City W
Glasgow City W
12/9/2020UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsLetní stadion na Zadních Vinohradech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sparta Praha W31%
×Draw31%
Glasgow City W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha W
0.93
Glasgow City W
1.09

Glasgow City W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha W
1.00
Glasgow City W
0.86

allows per match

Sparta Praha W
1.33
Glasgow City W
0.86

finishing

Sparta Praha W+0.00on par
Glasgow City W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha W ↓

Glasgow City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sparta Praha W or draw
61%
Sparta Praha W or Glasgow City W
69%
Draw or Glasgow City W
69%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha W wins by 2+
11%
Glasgow City W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sparta Praha W 1+ goals
61%
Sparta Praha W 2+ goals
24%
Sparta Praha W 3+ goals
7%
Glasgow City W 1+ goals
66%
Glasgow City W 2+ goals
30%
Glasgow City W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha W (draw refunded)
44%
Glasgow City W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Glasgow City W away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha W attack 1.00 + Glasgow City W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Glasgow City W attack 0.86 + Sparta Praha W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sparta Praha W scores more
31%
level
31%
Glasgow City W scores more
39%

Glasgow City W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Glasgow City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Sparta Praha W 2–1 Glasgow City W

Sparta Praha W beat Glasgow City W 2-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on December 9, 2020.

The match was played at Letní stadion na Zadních Vinohradech in Chomutov.