Glasgow City W 0–1 Sparta Praha W: Result & Stats

Glasgow City W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sparta Praha W

12/16/2020

UEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsBroadwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Glasgow City W57%

×Draw20%

Sparta Praha W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Glasgow City WExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.41

Glasgow City W

2.31

Sparta Praha W

1.41

Glasgow City W creates 64% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

1.36

creates per match

0.63

2.18

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Glasgow City W

1.36

Sparta Praha W

0.63

allows per match

Glasgow City W

2.18

Sparta Praha W

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Glasgow City W+0.00on par

Sparta Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glasgow City W ↓

Sparta Praha W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Glasgow City W or draw

77%

Glasgow City W or Sparta Praha W

80%

Draw or Sparta Praha W

43%

Winning margin

Glasgow City W wins by 2+

36%

Sparta Praha W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Glasgow City W 1+ goals

90%

Glasgow City W 2+ goals

67%

Glasgow City W 3+ goals

40%

Sparta Praha W 1+ goals

76%

Sparta Praha W 2+ goals

41%

Sparta Praha W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Glasgow City W (draw refunded)

71%

Sparta Praha W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glasgow City W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

Sparta Praha W away — creates 0.63, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glasgow City W attack 1.36 + Sparta Praha W defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.31

Sparta Praha W attack 0.63 + Glasgow City W defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Glasgow City W scores more

57%

level

20%

Sparta Praha W scores more

23%

Glasgow City W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Glasgow City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff