Sparta Praha 2–1 Slovan Liberec: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Slovan Liberec

L. Haraslín 79'

T. Wiesner 8'

M. Pourzitídis 63'

10/19/2024

Czech Liga · Round 12epet ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sparta Praha57%

×Draw24%

Slovan Liberec18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta PrahaExpected goals in this matchSlovan Liberec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.83

Sparta Praha

1.68

Slovan Liberec

0.83

Sparta Praha creates 102% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.43

creates per match

0.80

0.86

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Sparta Praha

1.43

Slovan Liberec

0.80

allows per match

Sparta Praha

0.86

Slovan Liberec

1.93

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.28scores more

Slovan Liberec+0.09on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Slovan Liberec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw

82%

Sparta Praha or Slovan Liberec

76%

Draw or Slovan Liberec

43%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

32%

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

81%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

50%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

24%

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals

56%

Slovan Liberec 2+ goals

20%

Slovan Liberec 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

76%

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Slovan Liberec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 1.43 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.68

Slovan Liberec attack 0.80 + Sparta Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sparta Praha scores more

57%

level

24%

Slovan Liberec scores more

18%

Sparta Praha at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

K. Kairinen

Sparta Praha · M

7.5

Match Events

8'

T. Wiesner↳ M. Ryneš

43'

Denis Višinský

46'

V. Birmančević← I. Tuci

56'

D. Preisler← A. Kayondo

56'

M. Icha← A. Ghali

63'

L. Letenay← Santiago Eneme

63'

B. Nyarko← D. Višinský

63'

M. Pourzitídis

66'

M. Suchomel← T. Wiesner

76'

L. Haraslín← E. Krasniqi

76'

V. Olatunji← L. Sadílek

77'

Qendrim Zyba

79'

L. Haraslín↳ M. Suchomel

82'

I. Varfolomieiev← Q. Zyba

83'

M. Solbakken← A. Rrahmani

84'

87'

90+3'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartaSlovan

Overview

67%Possession33%

10Total Shots10

0.90Expected Goals (xG)0.53

4Corners4

8Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target3

5Off Target2

1Blocked5

8Inside Box5

2Outside Box5

Passing

67%Possession33%

586Total Passes282

488Accurate Passes182

83%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls13

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec

Sparta Praha beat Slovan Liberec 2-1 in Czech Liga on October 19, 2024.

Goals: T. Wiesner (8'), M. Pourzitídis (63'), L. Haraslín (79').

Sparta Praha controlled possession (67%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at epet ARENA in Praha.

Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec