Slovan Liberec 1–0 Sparta Praha: Result & Stats

Slovan Liberec

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sparta Praha

D. Višinský 49'

3/15/2025

Czech Liga · Round 26Stadion u Nisy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Slovan Liberec33%

×Draw27%

Sparta Praha41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan LiberecExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.35

Slovan Liberec

1.18

Sparta Praha

1.35

Sparta Praha creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

0.90

creates per match

1.57

1.12

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Slovan Liberec

0.90

Sparta Praha

1.57

allows per match

Slovan Liberec

1.12

Sparta Praha

1.46

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Slovan Liberec-0.12scores less

Sparta Praha-0.28scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Liberec ↓

Sparta Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Slovan Liberec or draw

59%

Slovan Liberec or Sparta Praha

73%

Draw or Sparta Praha

67%

Winning margin

Slovan Liberec wins by 2+

13%

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Slovan Liberec 1+ goals

69%

Slovan Liberec 2+ goals

33%

Slovan Liberec 3+ goals

12%

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

74%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

39%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)

45%

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Liberec at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.12 · 9 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Liberec attack 0.90 + Sparta Praha defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sparta Praha attack 1.57 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slovan Liberec scores more

33%

level

27%

Sparta Praha scores more

41%

Sparta Praha at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Q. Laçi

Sparta Praha · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

Santiago Bocari Eneme

49'

D. Višinský

55'

Jaroslav Zelený

60'

T. Wiesner← E. Uchenna

60'

Albion Rrahmani← L. Sadílek

64'

L. Letenay← R. Krollis

64'

Q. Zyba← L. Masopust

66'

Lukáš Haraslín

69'

I. Varfolomieiev← Santiago Eneme

72'

M. Ryneš← E. Cobbaut

78'

A. Kayondo← A. Ghali

78'

D. Mašek← D. Višinský

81'

Michal Hlavatý

85'

V. Birmančević← F. Panák

85'

P. Vydra← K. Kairinen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SlovanSparta

Overview

35%Possession65%

9Total Shots13

1.34Expected Goals (xG)0.46

2Corners5

14Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots13

5On Target3

4Off Target8

0Blocked2

5Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

263Total Passes478

170Accurate Passes378

65%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1

Czech Liga: Slovan Liberec 1–0 Sparta Praha

Slovan Liberec beat Sparta Praha 1-0 in Czech Liga on March 15, 2025.

Goals: D. Višinský (49').

Sparta Praha controlled possession (65%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadion u Nisy in Liberec.

Slovan Liberec vs Sparta Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Czech Liga: Slovan Liberec 1–0 Sparta Praha