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Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec — Czech Liga 2019

Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Liberec
Slovan Liberec
2/18/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 21epet ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sparta Praha57%
×Draw24%
Slovan Liberec18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha
1.68
Slovan Liberec
0.83

Sparta Praha creates 102% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha
1.43
Slovan Liberec
0.80

allows per match

Sparta Praha
0.86
Slovan Liberec
1.93

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.28scores more
Slovan Liberec+0.09on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Slovan Liberec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw
82%
Sparta Praha or Slovan Liberec
76%
Draw or Slovan Liberec
43%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+
32%
Slovan Liberec wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals
81%
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
50%
Sparta Praha 3+ goals
24%
Slovan Liberec 1+ goals
56%
Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
20%
Slovan Liberec 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)
76%
Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Slovan Liberec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 1.43 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.68

Slovan Liberec attack 0.80 + Sparta Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sparta Praha scores more
57%
level
24%
Slovan Liberec scores more
18%

Sparta Praha at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec

Sparta Praha beat Slovan Liberec 2-1 in Czech Liga on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at epet ARENA in Praha.