Sparta Praha 5–2 Slovácko: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Slovácko

3/15/2026

Czech Liga · Round 26epet ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sparta Praha58%

×Draw25%

Slovácko17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta PrahaExpected goals in this matchSlovácko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.69

Sparta Praha

1.55

Slovácko

0.69

Sparta Praha creates 125% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.43

creates per match

0.51

0.86

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sparta Praha

1.43

Slovácko

0.51

allows per match

Sparta Praha

0.86

Slovácko

1.67

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.28scores more

Slovácko-0.01on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Slovácko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw

83%

Sparta Praha or Slovácko

75%

Draw or Slovácko

42%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

31%

Slovácko wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

79%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

46%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

20%

Slovácko 1+ goals

50%

Slovácko 2+ goals

15%

Slovácko 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

78%

Slovácko (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Slovácko away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.67 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 1.43 + Slovácko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Slovácko attack 0.51 + Sparta Praha defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sparta Praha scores more

58%

level

25%

Slovácko scores more

17%

Sparta Praha at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff