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Slovácko vs Sparta Praha — Czech Liga 2019

Slovácko
Slovácko
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha
5/5/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Championship Round - 1Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Slovácko30%
×Draw25%
Sparta Praha45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko
1.18
Sparta Praha
1.52

Sparta Praha creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Slovácko
0.89
Sparta Praha
1.57

allows per match

Slovácko
1.48
Sparta Praha
1.46

finishing

Slovácko-0.06on par
Sparta Praha-0.28scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko ↓

Sparta Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slovácko or draw
55%
Slovácko or Sparta Praha
75%
Draw or Sparta Praha
70%

Winning margin

Slovácko wins by 2+
12%
Sparta Praha wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Slovácko 1+ goals
69%
Slovácko 2+ goals
33%
Slovácko 3+ goals
12%
Sparta Praha 1+ goals
78%
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
45%
Sparta Praha 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Slovácko (draw refunded)
40%
Sparta Praha (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.48 · 6 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko attack 0.89 + Sparta Praha defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sparta Praha attack 1.57 + Slovácko defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slovácko scores more
30%
level
25%
Sparta Praha scores more
45%

Sparta Praha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Slovácko 2–4 Sparta Praha

Sparta Praha beat Slovácko 4-2 in Czech Liga on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Uherské Hradiště.