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Sparta Praha U19 vs Frýdek-Místek U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Sparta Praha U19
Sparta Praha U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Frýdek-Místek U19
Frýdek-Místek U19
A. Vitarigov 41'
L. Moudry 33'
D. Nemec 55'
3/2/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 16TC Strahov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sparta Praha U1972%
×Draw16%
Frýdek-Místek U1912%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha U19
2.58
Frýdek-Místek U19
0.95

Sparta Praha U19 creates 172% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha U19
2.28
Frýdek-Místek U19
0.87

allows per match

Sparta Praha U19
1.03
Frýdek-Místek U19
2.87

finishing

Sparta Praha U19+0.00on par
Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha U19 ↓

Frýdek-Místek U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sparta Praha U19 or draw
88%
Sparta Praha U19 or Frýdek-Místek U19
84%
Draw or Frýdek-Místek U19
28%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha U19 wins by 2+
50%
Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sparta Praha U19 1+ goals
92%
Sparta Praha U19 2+ goals
72%
Sparta Praha U19 3+ goals
47%
Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals
61%
Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals
25%
Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha U19 (draw refunded)
86%
Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha U19 at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Frýdek-Místek U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha U19 attack 2.28 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.58

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 0.87 + Sparta Praha U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sparta Praha U19 scores more
72%
level
16%
Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more
12%

Sparta Praha U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Sparta Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
L. Moudry
41'
A. Vitarigov
55'
D. Nemec

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Sparta Praha U19 2–1 Frýdek-Místek U19

Sparta Praha U19 beat Frýdek-Místek U19 2-1 in 1. Liga U19 on March 2, 2024.

Goals: L. Moudry (33'), A. Vitarigov (41'), D. Nemec (55').

The match was played at TC Strahov in Praha.