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Frýdek-Místek U19 vs Sparta Praha U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Frýdek-Místek U19
Frýdek-Místek U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sparta Praha U19
Sparta Praha U19
S. Holuj 14'
8/9/20231. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 1Stadion Stovky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Frýdek-Místek U1928%
×Draw24%
Sparta Praha U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.22
Sparta Praha U19
1.65

Sparta Praha U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 79 away

creates per match

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.07
Sparta Praha U19
2.16

allows per match

Frýdek-Místek U19
1.13
Sparta Praha U19
1.37

finishing

Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par
Sparta Praha U19+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frýdek-Místek U19 ↓

Sparta Praha U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Frýdek-Místek U19 or draw
53%
Frýdek-Místek U19 or Sparta Praha U19
76%
Draw or Sparta Praha U19
72%

Winning margin

Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+
12%
Sparta Praha U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals
70%
Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals
34%
Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals
12%
Sparta Praha U19 1+ goals
81%
Sparta Praha U19 2+ goals
49%
Sparta Praha U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)
37%
Sparta Praha U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frýdek-Místek U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Sparta Praha U19 away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.37 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 1.07 + Sparta Praha U19 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sparta Praha U19 attack 2.16 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more
28%
level
24%
Sparta Praha U19 scores more
47%

Sparta Praha U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sparta Praha U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
S. Holuj
45'
P. Slanina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frýdek-Místek U19 vs Sparta Praha U19

Frýdek-Místek U19 beat Sparta Praha U19 1-0 in 1. Liga U19 on August 9, 2023.

Goals: S. Holuj (14').

The match was played at Stadion Stovky in Frýdek-Místek.