Sparta Praha II 5–2 Prostějov: Result & Stats | FNL

Sparta Praha II

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Prostějov

10/6/2024

FNL · Round 12eFotbal aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Sparta Praha II51%

×Draw24%

Prostějov25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Praha IIExpected goals in this matchProstějov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.11

Sparta Praha II

1.69

Prostějov

1.11

Sparta Praha II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 103 away

1.55

creates per match

1.02

1.21

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sparta Praha II

1.55

Prostějov

1.02

allows per match

Sparta Praha II

1.21

Prostějov

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Praha II+0.00on par

Prostějov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha II ↓

Prostějov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sparta Praha II or draw

75%

Sparta Praha II or Prostějov

76%

Draw or Prostějov

49%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha II wins by 2+

27%

Prostějov wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sparta Praha II 1+ goals

82%

Sparta Praha II 2+ goals

50%

Sparta Praha II 3+ goals

24%

Prostějov 1+ goals

67%

Prostějov 2+ goals

30%

Prostějov 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)

67%

Prostějov (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Prostějov away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.83 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha II attack 1.55 + Prostějov defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

Prostějov attack 1.02 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sparta Praha II scores more

51%

level

24%

Prostějov scores more

25%

Sparta Praha II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sparta Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff