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Prostějov vs Sparta Praha II — FNL 2019

Prostějov
Prostějov
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Sparta Praha II
Sparta Praha II
5/3/2025FNLFNL · Round 26Stadion 1. SK Prostějov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Prostějov46%
×Draw25%
Sparta Praha II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prostějov
1.60
Sparta Praha II
1.23

Prostějov creates 30% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 75 away

creates per match

Prostějov
1.40
Sparta Praha II
1.15

allows per match

Prostějov
1.30
Sparta Praha II
1.81

finishing

Prostějov+0.00on par
Sparta Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prostějov ↓

Sparta Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Prostějov or draw
71%
Prostějov or Sparta Praha II
75%
Draw or Sparta Praha II
54%

Winning margin

Prostějov wins by 2+
24%
Sparta Praha II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Prostějov 1+ goals
80%
Prostějov 2+ goals
47%
Prostějov 3+ goals
22%
Sparta Praha II 1+ goals
71%
Sparta Praha II 2+ goals
35%
Sparta Praha II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Prostějov (draw refunded)
61%
Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prostějov at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 103 matches

Sparta Praha II away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prostějov attack 1.40 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sparta Praha II attack 1.15 + Prostějov defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Prostějov scores more
46%
level
25%
Sparta Praha II scores more
29%

Prostějov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Prostějov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prostějov vs Sparta Praha II

Sparta Praha II beat Prostějov 2-1 in FNL on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion 1. SK Prostějov in Prostějov.