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Sparta Praha II vs Artis — FNL 2019

Sparta Praha II
Sparta Praha II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Artis
Artis
4/16/2025FNLFNL · Round 23eFotbal aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Sparta Praha II40%
×Draw26%
Artis34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha II
1.38
Artis
1.25

Sparta Praha II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 103 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha II
1.55
Artis
1.28

allows per match

Sparta Praha II
1.21
Artis
1.21

finishing

Sparta Praha II+0.00on par
Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha II ↓

Artis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sparta Praha II or draw
66%
Sparta Praha II or Artis
74%
Draw or Artis
60%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha II wins by 2+
19%
Artis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sparta Praha II 1+ goals
75%
Sparta Praha II 2+ goals
40%
Sparta Praha II 3+ goals
16%
Artis 1+ goals
71%
Artis 2+ goals
36%
Artis 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)
54%
Artis (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha II attack 1.55 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Artis attack 1.28 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sparta Praha II scores more
40%
level
26%
Artis scores more
34%

Sparta Praha II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sparta Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Praha II vs Artis

Sparta Praha II and Artis drew 0-0 in FNL on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at eFotbal aréna in Praha.