Artis 2–2 Sparta Praha II: Result & Stats | FNL

Artis

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Sparta Praha II

10/2/2024

FNL · Round 9Stadion SK Líšeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Artis50%

×Draw24%

Sparta Praha II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArtisExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.12

Artis

1.67

Sparta Praha II

1.12

Artis creates 49% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 75 away

1.53

creates per match

1.15

1.09

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Artis

1.53

Sparta Praha II

1.15

allows per match

Artis

1.09

Sparta Praha II

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Artis+0.00on par

Sparta Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artis ↓

Sparta Praha II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Artis or draw

74%

Artis or Sparta Praha II

76%

Draw or Sparta Praha II

50%

Winning margin

Artis wins by 2+

27%

Sparta Praha II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Artis 1+ goals

81%

Artis 2+ goals

50%

Artis 3+ goals

23%

Sparta Praha II 1+ goals

67%

Sparta Praha II 2+ goals

31%

Sparta Praha II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Artis (draw refunded)

66%

Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Sparta Praha II away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artis attack 1.53 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sparta Praha II attack 1.15 + Artis defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Artis scores more

50%

level

24%

Sparta Praha II scores more

26%

Artis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Artis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff