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Sparta Nijkerk vs Rijnvogels — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Rijnvogels
Rijnvogels
1/28/2023Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 20Sportpark De Ebbenhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sparta Nijkerk51%
×Draw21%
Rijnvogels28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Nijkerk
2.13
Rijnvogels
1.54

Sparta Nijkerk creates 38% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sparta Nijkerk
2.29
Rijnvogels
1.88

allows per match

Sparta Nijkerk
1.21
Rijnvogels
1.97

finishing

Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par
Rijnvogels+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Nijkerk ↓

Rijnvogels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Sparta Nijkerk or draw
72%
Sparta Nijkerk or Rijnvogels
79%
Draw or Rijnvogels
49%

Winning margin

Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
30%
Rijnvogels wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
88%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
63%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
35%
Rijnvogels 1+ goals
79%
Rijnvogels 2+ goals
45%
Rijnvogels 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
65%
Rijnvogels (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Nijkerk at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

Rijnvogels away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Nijkerk attack 2.29 + Rijnvogels defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.13

Rijnvogels attack 1.88 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sparta Nijkerk scores more
51%
level
21%
Rijnvogels scores more
28%

Sparta Nijkerk at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Nijkerk vs Rijnvogels

Rijnvogels beat Sparta Nijkerk 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Ebbenhorst in Nijkerk.