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Rijnvogels vs Sparta Nijkerk — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Rijnvogels
Rijnvogels
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
1/20/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 19Sportpark De Kooltuin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rijnvogels39%
×Draw23%
Sparta Nijkerk39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rijnvogels
1.67
Sparta Nijkerk
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 97 away

creates per match

Rijnvogels
1.76
Sparta Nijkerk
1.87

allows per match

Rijnvogels
1.47
Sparta Nijkerk
1.58

finishing

Rijnvogels+0.00on par
Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnvogels ↓

Sparta Nijkerk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Rijnvogels or draw
61%
Rijnvogels or Sparta Nijkerk
77%
Draw or Sparta Nijkerk
61%

Winning margin

Rijnvogels wins by 2+
19%
Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rijnvogels 1+ goals
81%
Rijnvogels 2+ goals
50%
Rijnvogels 3+ goals
23%
Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
81%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
50%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Rijnvogels (draw refunded)
50%
Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnvogels at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Sparta Nijkerk away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnvogels attack 1.76 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sparta Nijkerk attack 1.87 + Rijnvogels defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rijnvogels scores more
39%
level
23%
Sparta Nijkerk scores more
39%

Rijnvogels at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rijnvogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Rijnvogels 3–1 Sparta Nijkerk

Rijnvogels beat Sparta Nijkerk 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Kooltuin in Katwijk aan Zee.