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Sparta Nijkerk vs ONS Sneek — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
FT
4 – 1
ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
3/7/2020Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 24Sportpark De Ebbenhorst (Nijkerk)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sparta Nijkerk74%
×Draw14%
ONS Sneek11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Nijkerk
2.98
ONS Sneek
1.10

Sparta Nijkerk creates 171% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sparta Nijkerk
2.29
ONS Sneek
1.00

allows per match

Sparta Nijkerk
1.21
ONS Sneek
3.67

finishing

Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par
ONS Sneek+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Nijkerk ↓

ONS Sneek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Sparta Nijkerk or draw
89%
Sparta Nijkerk or ONS Sneek
86%
Draw or ONS Sneek
26%

Winning margin

Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
55%
ONS Sneek wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
95%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
79%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
56%
ONS Sneek 1+ goals
67%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
30%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
87%
ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Nijkerk at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

ONS Sneek away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Nijkerk attack 2.29 + ONS Sneek defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.98

ONS Sneek attack 1.00 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Sparta Nijkerk scores more
74%
level
14%
ONS Sneek scores more
11%

Sparta Nijkerk at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Nijkerk vs ONS Sneek

Sparta Nijkerk beat ONS Sneek 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark De Ebbenhorst (Nijkerk).