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ONS Sneek vs Sparta Nijkerk — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

ONS Sneek
ONS Sneek
FT
1 – 4
Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
12/14/2019Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 16Zuidersportpark (Sneek)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

ONS Sneek30%
×Draw21%
Sparta Nijkerk49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ONS Sneek
1.70
Sparta Nijkerk
2.21

Sparta Nijkerk creates 30% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 97 away

creates per match

ONS Sneek
1.82
Sparta Nijkerk
1.87

allows per match

ONS Sneek
2.55
Sparta Nijkerk
1.58

finishing

ONS Sneek+0.00on par
Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ONS Sneek ↓

Sparta Nijkerk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

ONS Sneek or draw
51%
ONS Sneek or Sparta Nijkerk
79%
Draw or Sparta Nijkerk
70%

Winning margin

ONS Sneek wins by 2+
15%
Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

ONS Sneek 1+ goals
82%
ONS Sneek 2+ goals
51%
ONS Sneek 3+ goals
24%
Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
89%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
65%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

ONS Sneek (draw refunded)
38%
Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ONS Sneek at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

Sparta Nijkerk away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ONS Sneek attack 1.82 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sparta Nijkerk attack 1.87 + ONS Sneek defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

ONS Sneek scores more
30%
level
21%
Sparta Nijkerk scores more
49%

Sparta Nijkerk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: ONS Sneek 1–4 Sparta Nijkerk

Sparta Nijkerk beat ONS Sneek 4-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Zuidersportpark (Sneek).