Sparta Nijkerk 2–0 Ijsselmeervogels: Result & Stats

Sparta Nijkerk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ijsselmeervogels

K. Sterling 86'

M. Ahrens 37'

1/13/2024

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 18Sportpark De Ebbenhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sparta Nijkerk42%

×Draw23%

Ijsselmeervogels35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta NijkerkExpected goals in this matchIjsselmeervogels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.60

Sparta Nijkerk

1.77

Ijsselmeervogels

1.60

Sparta Nijkerk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 34 away

2.29

creates per match

2.00

1.21

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sparta Nijkerk

2.29

Ijsselmeervogels

2.00

allows per match

Sparta Nijkerk

1.21

Ijsselmeervogels

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par

Ijsselmeervogels+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Nijkerk ↓

Ijsselmeervogels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sparta Nijkerk or draw

65%

Sparta Nijkerk or Ijsselmeervogels

77%

Draw or Ijsselmeervogels

58%

Winning margin

Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+

22%

Ijsselmeervogels wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals

83%

Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals

53%

Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals

26%

Ijsselmeervogels 1+ goals

80%

Ijsselmeervogels 2+ goals

47%

Ijsselmeervogels 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)

55%

Ijsselmeervogels (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Nijkerk at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

Ijsselmeervogels away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Nijkerk attack 2.29 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ijsselmeervogels attack 2.00 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sparta Nijkerk scores more

42%

level

23%

Ijsselmeervogels scores more

35%

Sparta Nijkerk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

M. Ahrens

86'

K. Sterling

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff