Ijsselmeervogels 3–2 Sparta Nijkerk: Result & Stats

Ijsselmeervogels

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Sparta Nijkerk

1/11/2025

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 18Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ijsselmeervogels56%

×Draw20%

Sparta Nijkerk24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IjsselmeervogelsExpected goals in this matchSparta Nijkerk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.45

Ijsselmeervogels

2.29

Sparta Nijkerk

1.45

Ijsselmeervogels creates 58% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 97 away

3.00

creates per match

1.87

1.03

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Ijsselmeervogels

3.00

Sparta Nijkerk

1.87

allows per match

Ijsselmeervogels

1.03

Sparta Nijkerk

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ijsselmeervogels+0.00on par

Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ijsselmeervogels ↓

Sparta Nijkerk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Ijsselmeervogels or draw

76%

Ijsselmeervogels or Sparta Nijkerk

80%

Draw or Sparta Nijkerk

44%

Winning margin

Ijsselmeervogels wins by 2+

35%

Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ijsselmeervogels 1+ goals

90%

Ijsselmeervogels 2+ goals

66%

Ijsselmeervogels 3+ goals

40%

Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals

77%

Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals

42%

Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ijsselmeervogels (draw refunded)

70%

Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ijsselmeervogels at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Sparta Nijkerk away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ijsselmeervogels attack 3.00 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.29

Sparta Nijkerk attack 1.87 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ijsselmeervogels scores more

56%

level

20%

Sparta Nijkerk scores more

24%

Ijsselmeervogels at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ijsselmeervogels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff