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Sparta Nijkerk vs HSV ODIN 59 — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
FT
2 – 0
HSV ODIN 59
HSV ODIN 59
8/21/2021Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 1Sportpark De Ebbenhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sparta Nijkerk60%
×Draw19%
HSV ODIN 5921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Nijkerk
2.36
HSV ODIN 59
1.32

Sparta Nijkerk creates 79% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 46 away

creates per match

Sparta Nijkerk
2.29
HSV ODIN 59
1.43

allows per match

Sparta Nijkerk
1.21
HSV ODIN 59
2.43

finishing

Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par
HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Nijkerk ↓

HSV ODIN 59 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Sparta Nijkerk or draw
79%
Sparta Nijkerk or HSV ODIN 59
81%
Draw or HSV ODIN 59
40%

Winning margin

Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
38%
HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
90%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
68%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
41%
HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals
73%
HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals
38%
HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
75%
HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Nijkerk at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

HSV ODIN 59 away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Nijkerk attack 2.29 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.36

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.43 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sparta Nijkerk scores more
60%
level
19%
HSV ODIN 59 scores more
21%

Sparta Nijkerk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Nijkerk vs HSV ODIN 59

Sparta Nijkerk beat HSV ODIN 59 2-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Sportpark De Ebbenhorst in Nijkerk.