HSV ODIN 59 0–7 Sparta Nijkerk: Result & Stats

HSV ODIN 59

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 4

Sparta Nijkerk

2/24/2024

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 23Sportpark Assumburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

HSV ODIN 5933%

×Draw22%

Sparta Nijkerk45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HSV ODIN 59Expected goals in this matchSparta Nijkerk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.98

HSV ODIN 59

1.67

Sparta Nijkerk

1.98

Sparta Nijkerk creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 97 away

1.75

creates per match

1.87

2.08

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

HSV ODIN 59

1.75

Sparta Nijkerk

1.87

allows per match

HSV ODIN 59

2.08

Sparta Nijkerk

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HSV ODIN 59+0.00on par

Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HSV ODIN 59 ↓

Sparta Nijkerk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

HSV ODIN 59 or draw

55%

HSV ODIN 59 or Sparta Nijkerk

78%

Draw or Sparta Nijkerk

67%

Winning margin

HSV ODIN 59 wins by 2+

16%

Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

HSV ODIN 59 1+ goals

81%

HSV ODIN 59 2+ goals

50%

HSV ODIN 59 3+ goals

23%

Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals

86%

Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals

59%

Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

HSV ODIN 59 (draw refunded)

42%

Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HSV ODIN 59 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

Sparta Nijkerk away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HSV ODIN 59 attack 1.75 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sparta Nijkerk attack 1.87 + HSV ODIN 59 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

HSV ODIN 59 scores more

33%

level

22%

Sparta Nijkerk scores more

45%

Sparta Nijkerk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HSV ODIN 59 vs Sparta Nijkerk

Sparta Nijkerk beat HSV ODIN 59 7-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Assumburg in Heemskerk.

HSV ODIN 59 vs Sparta Nijkerk — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: HSV ODIN 59 vs Sparta Nijkerk