Sparta Nijkerk 3–0 DVS 33 Ermelo: Result & Stats

Sparta Nijkerk

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

DVS 33 Ermelo

11/29/2025

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 15Sportpark De Ebbenhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Sparta Nijkerk50%

×Draw22%

DVS 33 Ermelo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta NijkerkExpected goals in this matchDVS 33 Ermelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.38

Sparta Nijkerk

1.90

DVS 33 Ermelo

1.38

Sparta Nijkerk creates 38% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 100 away

2.29

creates per match

1.54

1.21

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Sparta Nijkerk

2.29

DVS 33 Ermelo

1.54

allows per match

Sparta Nijkerk

1.21

DVS 33 Ermelo

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par

DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Nijkerk ↓

DVS 33 Ermelo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sparta Nijkerk or draw

72%

Sparta Nijkerk or DVS 33 Ermelo

78%

Draw or DVS 33 Ermelo

50%

Winning margin

Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+

28%

DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals

85%

Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals

56%

Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals

29%

DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals

75%

DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals

40%

DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)

64%

DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Nijkerk at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

DVS 33 Ermelo away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Nijkerk attack 2.29 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.90

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 1.54 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sparta Nijkerk scores more

50%

level

22%

DVS 33 Ermelo scores more

28%

Sparta Nijkerk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff