DVS 33 Ermelo 2–2 Sparta Nijkerk: Result & Stats

DVS 33 Ermelo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Sparta Nijkerk

5/9/2026

Derde Divisie - Saturday · Group A - 32Sportpark Zuid DVS '33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

DVS 33 Ermelo46%

×Draw23%

Sparta Nijkerk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DVS 33 ErmeloExpected goals in this matchSparta Nijkerk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.47

DVS 33 Ermelo

1.84

Sparta Nijkerk

1.47

DVS 33 Ermelo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

2.11

creates per match

1.87

1.07

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

DVS 33 Ermelo

2.11

Sparta Nijkerk

1.87

allows per match

DVS 33 Ermelo

1.07

Sparta Nijkerk

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

DVS 33 Ermelo+0.00on par

Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DVS 33 Ermelo ↓

Sparta Nijkerk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

DVS 33 Ermelo or draw

69%

DVS 33 Ermelo or Sparta Nijkerk

77%

Draw or Sparta Nijkerk

54%

Winning margin

DVS 33 Ermelo wins by 2+

25%

Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

DVS 33 Ermelo 1+ goals

84%

DVS 33 Ermelo 2+ goals

55%

DVS 33 Ermelo 3+ goals

28%

Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals

77%

Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals

43%

Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

DVS 33 Ermelo (draw refunded)

60%

Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DVS 33 Ermelo at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.07 · 98 matches

Sparta Nijkerk away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DVS 33 Ermelo attack 2.11 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sparta Nijkerk attack 1.87 + DVS 33 Ermelo defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

DVS 33 Ermelo scores more

46%

level

23%

Sparta Nijkerk scores more

31%

DVS 33 Ermelo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "DVS 33 Ermelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff