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Sparta Lichtenberg vs Rostocker FC — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Sparta Lichtenberg
Sparta Lichtenberg
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Rostocker FC
Rostocker FC
11/3/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 11Kunstrasenplatz Fischerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sparta Lichtenberg66%
×Draw16%
Rostocker FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Lichtenberg
3.24
Rostocker FC
1.70

Sparta Lichtenberg creates 91% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 67 away

creates per match

Sparta Lichtenberg
3.23
Rostocker FC
1.40

allows per match

Sparta Lichtenberg
2.00
Rostocker FC
3.25

finishing

Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par
Rostocker FC+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Lichtenberg ↓

Rostocker FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Sparta Lichtenberg or draw
82%
Sparta Lichtenberg or Rostocker FC
84%
Draw or Rostocker FC
34%

Winning margin

Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+
47%
Rostocker FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals
96%
Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals
83%
Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals
61%
Rostocker FC 1+ goals
82%
Rostocker FC 2+ goals
51%
Rostocker FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
79%
Rostocker FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Lichtenberg at home — creates 3.23, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

Rostocker FC away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 3.23 + Rostocker FC defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.24

Rostocker FC attack 1.40 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sparta Lichtenberg scores more
66%
level
16%
Rostocker FC scores more
18%

Sparta Lichtenberg at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sparta Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Sparta Lichtenberg 7–0 Rostocker FC

Sparta Lichtenberg beat Rostocker FC 7-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Fischerstraße in Berlin.