Rostocker FC 4–1 Sparta Lichtenberg: Result & Stats

Rostocker FC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sparta Lichtenberg

5/19/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 28Sportplatz am Damerower Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Rostocker FC39%

×Draw21%

Sparta Lichtenberg40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rostocker FCExpected goals in this matchSparta Lichtenberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

2.06

Rostocker FC

2.04

Sparta Lichtenberg

2.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 44 away

1.81

creates per match

1.89

2.22

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Rostocker FC

1.81

Sparta Lichtenberg

1.89

allows per match

Rostocker FC

2.22

Sparta Lichtenberg

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rostocker FC+0.00on par

Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostocker FC ↓

Sparta Lichtenberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Rostocker FC or draw

60%

Rostocker FC or Sparta Lichtenberg

79%

Draw or Sparta Lichtenberg

61%

Winning margin

Rostocker FC wins by 2+

22%

Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rostocker FC 1+ goals

87%

Rostocker FC 2+ goals

60%

Rostocker FC 3+ goals

33%

Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals

87%

Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals

61%

Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Rostocker FC (draw refunded)

50%

Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostocker FC at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.22 · 67 matches

Sparta Lichtenberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 2.27 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostocker FC attack 1.81 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.04

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 1.89 + Rostocker FC defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rostocker FC scores more

39%

level

21%

Sparta Lichtenberg scores more

40%

Sparta Lichtenberg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sparta Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff