Sparta Lichtenberg 4–0 Optik Rathenow

Sparta Lichtenberg

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Optik Rathenow

3/30/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 22Kunstrasenplatz Fischerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sparta Lichtenberg58%

×Draw18%

Optik Rathenow23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta LichtenbergExpected goals in this matchOptik Rathenow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.63

Sparta Lichtenberg

2.63

Optik Rathenow

1.63

Sparta Lichtenberg creates 61% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 62 away

3.23

creates per match

1.26

2.00

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Sparta Lichtenberg

3.23

Optik Rathenow

1.26

allows per match

Sparta Lichtenberg

2.00

Optik Rathenow

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Optik Rathenow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Lichtenberg ↓

Optik Rathenow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Sparta Lichtenberg or draw

77%

Sparta Lichtenberg or Optik Rathenow

82%

Draw or Optik Rathenow

42%

Winning margin

Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+

38%

Optik Rathenow wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals

93%

Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals

73%

Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals

48%

Optik Rathenow 1+ goals

80%

Optik Rathenow 2+ goals

48%

Optik Rathenow 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)

72%

Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Lichtenberg at home — creates 3.23, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

Optik Rathenow away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.03 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 3.23 + Optik Rathenow defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.63

Optik Rathenow attack 1.26 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sparta Lichtenberg scores more

58%

level

18%

Optik Rathenow scores more

23%

Sparta Lichtenberg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sparta Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff