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Optik Rathenow vs Sparta Lichtenberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Optik Rathenow
Optik Rathenow
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sparta Lichtenberg
Sparta Lichtenberg
3/18/2026Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 17Stadion Vogelgesang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Optik Rathenow43%
×Draw22%
Sparta Lichtenberg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Optik Rathenow
1.94
Sparta Lichtenberg
1.74

Optik Rathenow creates 11% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 44 away

creates per match

Optik Rathenow
1.61
Sparta Lichtenberg
1.89

allows per match

Optik Rathenow
1.59
Sparta Lichtenberg
2.27

finishing

Optik Rathenow+0.00on par
Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Optik Rathenow ↓

Sparta Lichtenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Optik Rathenow or draw
65%
Optik Rathenow or Sparta Lichtenberg
78%
Draw or Sparta Lichtenberg
57%

Winning margin

Optik Rathenow wins by 2+
24%
Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Optik Rathenow 1+ goals
86%
Optik Rathenow 2+ goals
58%
Optik Rathenow 3+ goals
30%
Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals
82%
Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals
52%
Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)
55%
Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Optik Rathenow at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Sparta Lichtenberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 2.27 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Optik Rathenow attack 1.61 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 1.89 + Optik Rathenow defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Optik Rathenow scores more
43%
level
22%
Sparta Lichtenberg scores more
35%

Optik Rathenow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Optik Rathenow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Optik Rathenow vs Sparta Lichtenberg

Optik Rathenow beat Sparta Lichtenberg 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on March 18, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Vogelgesang in Rathenow.