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Sparta Lichtenberg vs Dynamo Schwerin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Sparta Lichtenberg
Sparta Lichtenberg
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Dynamo Schwerin
Dynamo Schwerin
9/22/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 6Rasenplatz Fischerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sparta Lichtenberg60%
×Draw18%
Dynamo Schwerin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Lichtenberg
2.76
Dynamo Schwerin
1.68

Sparta Lichtenberg creates 64% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 61 away

creates per match

Sparta Lichtenberg
3.23
Dynamo Schwerin
1.36

allows per match

Sparta Lichtenberg
2.00
Dynamo Schwerin
2.30

finishing

Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par
Dynamo Schwerin+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Lichtenberg ↓

Dynamo Schwerin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Sparta Lichtenberg or draw
77%
Sparta Lichtenberg or Dynamo Schwerin
82%
Draw or Dynamo Schwerin
40%

Winning margin

Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+
40%
Dynamo Schwerin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals
94%
Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals
76%
Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals
51%
Dynamo Schwerin 1+ goals
81%
Dynamo Schwerin 2+ goals
50%
Dynamo Schwerin 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
73%
Dynamo Schwerin (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Lichtenberg at home — creates 3.23, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

Dynamo Schwerin away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.30 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 3.23 + Dynamo Schwerin defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.76

Dynamo Schwerin attack 1.36 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sparta Lichtenberg scores more
60%
level
18%
Dynamo Schwerin scores more
23%

Sparta Lichtenberg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sparta Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Lichtenberg vs Dynamo Schwerin

Dynamo Schwerin beat Sparta Lichtenberg 3-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Fischerstraße in Berlin.