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Dynamo Schwerin vs Sparta Lichtenberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Dynamo Schwerin
Dynamo Schwerin
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sparta Lichtenberg
Sparta Lichtenberg
3/15/2025Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 21Sportpark Lankow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Dynamo Schwerin44%
×Draw22%
Sparta Lichtenberg34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Schwerin
1.96
Sparta Lichtenberg
1.71

Dynamo Schwerin creates 15% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 44 away

creates per match

Dynamo Schwerin
1.65
Sparta Lichtenberg
1.89

allows per match

Dynamo Schwerin
1.52
Sparta Lichtenberg
2.27

finishing

Dynamo Schwerin+0.00on par
Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Schwerin ↓

Sparta Lichtenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Dynamo Schwerin or draw
66%
Dynamo Schwerin or Sparta Lichtenberg
78%
Draw or Sparta Lichtenberg
56%

Winning margin

Dynamo Schwerin wins by 2+
24%
Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dynamo Schwerin 1+ goals
86%
Dynamo Schwerin 2+ goals
58%
Dynamo Schwerin 3+ goals
31%
Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals
82%
Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals
51%
Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Schwerin (draw refunded)
56%
Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Schwerin at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

Sparta Lichtenberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 2.27 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Schwerin attack 1.65 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.96

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 1.89 + Dynamo Schwerin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dynamo Schwerin scores more
44%
level
22%
Sparta Lichtenberg scores more
34%

Dynamo Schwerin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dynamo Schwerin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Schwerin vs Sparta Lichtenberg

Sparta Lichtenberg beat Dynamo Schwerin 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Lankow in Schwerin.