Sparta Kutná Hora 1–2 Kolín: Result & Stats

Sparta Kutná Hora

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Kolín

4/2/2022

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 19Stadión Sparta ČKD Kutná Hora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sparta Kutná Hora25%

×Draw21%

Kolín54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Kutná HoraExpected goals in this matchKolín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.14

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.41

Kolín

2.14

Kolín creates 52% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

1.54

creates per match

2.40

1.88

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.54

Kolín

2.40

allows per match

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.88

Kolín

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Kolín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Kutná Hora ↓

Kolín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sparta Kutná Hora or draw

46%

Sparta Kutná Hora or Kolín

79%

Draw or Kolín

75%

Winning margin

Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+

11%

Kolín wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals

76%

Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals

41%

Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals

17%

Kolín 1+ goals

88%

Kolín 2+ goals

63%

Kolín 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)

32%

Kolín (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Kutná Hora at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

Kolín away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.54 + Kolín defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kolín attack 2.40 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sparta Kutná Hora scores more

25%

level

21%

Kolín scores more

54%

Kolín at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kolín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff