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Kolín vs Sparta Kutná Hora — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Kolín
Kolín
FT
10 – 1
Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
9/13/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 4Mestský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kolín86%
×Draw9%
Sparta Kutná Hora5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolín
3.81
Sparta Kutná Hora
0.94

Kolín creates 305% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

creates per match

Kolín
3.68
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.07

allows per match

Kolín
0.80
Sparta Kutná Hora
3.93

finishing

Kolín+0.00on par
Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolín ↓

Sparta Kutná Hora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Kolín or draw
95%
Kolín or Sparta Kutná Hora
91%
Draw or Sparta Kutná Hora
14%

Winning margin

Kolín wins by 2+
70%
Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kolín 1+ goals
98%
Kolín 2+ goals
88%
Kolín 3+ goals
71%
Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
61%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
24%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kolín (draw refunded)
94%
Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolín at home — creates 3.68, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Sparta Kutná Hora away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolín attack 3.68 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.81

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.07 + Kolín defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Kolín scores more
86%
level
9%
Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
5%

Kolín at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Kolín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolín vs Sparta Kutná Hora

Kolín beat Sparta Kutná Hora 10-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Mestský stadion in Kolín V.