Sparta Kutná Hora 1–1 Čáslav: Result & Stats

Sparta Kutná Hora

Pens

1 – 1

Čáslav

10/5/2019

4. liga - Divizie C · Round 9Stadión Sparta ČKD Kutná Hora (Kutná Hora)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sparta Kutná Hora42%

×Draw23%

Čáslav36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Kutná HoraExpected goals in this matchČáslav

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.65

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.79

Čáslav

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 69 away

1.54

creates per match

1.41

1.88

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.54

Čáslav

1.41

allows per match

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.88

Čáslav

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Čáslav+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Kutná Hora ↓

Čáslav →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sparta Kutná Hora or draw

64%

Sparta Kutná Hora or Čáslav

77%

Draw or Čáslav

58%

Winning margin

Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+

22%

Čáslav wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals

83%

Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals

53%

Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals

26%

Čáslav 1+ goals

81%

Čáslav 2+ goals

49%

Čáslav 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)

54%

Čáslav (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Kutná Hora at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

Čáslav away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.04 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.54 + Čáslav defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.79

Čáslav attack 1.41 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sparta Kutná Hora scores more

42%

level

23%

Čáslav scores more

36%

Sparta Kutná Hora at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sparta Kutná Hora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff